Graduation week is here. May earnings are piling up. The Fed minutes drop midweek.
Every business owner is wondering if now is the right time to hire or hold.
Every parent is watching their kid graduate into the slowest entry-level job market in years.
Every corporate professional is quietly wondering if their company is next to freeze hiring.
You should be in their inbox before they start doomscrolling.
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ADVISOR BRIEF: Week of May 18
Data and science to help you anticipate client questions and concerns this week
Calendar:
FOMC minutes from April meeting — Wednesday, May 20
Flash PMI for May — Thursday, May 21
Earnings throughout the week:
Home Depot — Tuesday, May 19
Nvidia, Lowe's, Target, TJ Maxx — Wednesday, May 20
Walmart, John Deere, Ralph Lauren — Thursday, May 21
Let’s break it down…
Conversation 1: Headlines extrapolating one company's earnings, one survey, or one old Fed memo.
Why it matters: This week, you get April earnings from a handful of retailers and manufacturers, one qualitative survey for May, and Fed meeting minutes that are three weeks old and already outdated by newer inflation data. Your clients will hear a headline about Walmart and think the entire economy is slowing, or maybe the total opposite.
Home Depot and Lowe's spark conversations about housing and construction. Target, TJ Maxx, Walmart, and Ralph Lauren get extrapolated to all of retail. John Deere ignites tariff and agriculture questions. Nvidia sets the tone for how everyone feels about AI spending and tech.
The problem is that one company's quarterly earnings does not describe the economy. But that is exactly how it will be covered, and clients won’t have any accessible information saying otherwise.
The opportunity here is being the calm voice with context before the extrapolation takes over.
Biases at play:
Availability heuristic. One Nvidia headline feels more real and more representative than 50 smaller data points that tell a fuller, calmer story. Vivid, specific company names and numbers flood the feed. Broad trends that contradict the headline get ignored.
Representativeness heuristic. If Walmart says customers are pulling back, that must mean customers everywhere are pulling back. Clients pattern-match from one company to an entire category without checking whether the comparison actually fits.
Anchoring. Clients anchor to the last number they heard. If Target reports weak earnings, that becomes the reference point for how retail is doing, even if ten other retailers report strength.
Business owners: trying to decide whether to hire, pause expansion, freeze costs, or raise prices based on what the largest companies in the world are reporting. A small manufacturer hears that John Deere is cutting and assumes tariffs are about to crush them too, without modeling what that actually means for their specific supply chain and customer base.
Corporate professionals: wondering if their employer is about to follow the same playbook they see in the headlines. They see tech layoffs and assume their RSUs are about to collapse, or they see hiring freezes and start updating their resume when their own company has given zero signals of trouble.
Some more context for your meetings:
US corporations are more profitable than ever. Q1 2026 S&P 500 profit margins hit 13.4%, the highest level since FactSet began tracking in 2009. The previous record was 13.2% in Q4 2025. FactSet
Corporate earnings are growing at one of the fastest rates in years. Analysts project 14.3% earnings growth for full-year 2026, with Q1 growth at 11.7% and Q2 at 14.9%. FactSet
Sales growth is strong. Revenue growth for Q1 2026 came in at 8.4% year-over-year, one of the strongest sales growth rates in years. FactSet
The economy rebounded in Q1. The U.S. economy grew 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025. Growth was driven by investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending. BEA
Big tech earnings all beat expectations. Microsoft revenue grew 18% to $82.89 billion. Meta revenue grew 33% to $56.3 billion, the fastest growth since 2021. Alphabet revenue grew 19% to $107 billion, with Google Cloud surpassing $20 billion for the first time, up 63% year-over-year. Amazon also beat on revenue. Yahoo Finance, Business Insider
Home sales are slow. Existing home sales rose just 0.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million. Sales were flat year-over-year. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% to $417,700. NAR
Consumer sentiment just hit the lowest level in 74 years of survey history. University of Michigan
AI has had almost no measurable impact on employment so far. New Census Bureau data from November 2025 through January 2026 found that only about 2% of businesses had any AI-related employment change, with increases and decreases happening in roughly equal numbers. Of the 18% of firms that use AI in some capacity, 66% use it only to augment existing tasks. The most common uses are writing, document analysis, and search. (U.S. Census Bureau, The Microstructure of AI Diffusion, April 2026)
Conversation 2: Graduation week and the challenging next step
Why it matters: College commencements are happening across the country this week and next. Thousands of new graduates are entering the slowest entry-level hiring market in years.
This is not a recession story. Layoffs are near historic lows. This is a structural shift. AI is performing tasks that used to go to entry-level workers. Employers are holding headcount flat and hiring experienced talent when they do hire.
Your clients are living this from different angles. Parents with adult children who cannot find work. Pre-retirees are now planning for longer financial support for their kids. Young families are trying to plan for college costs so their kids do not graduate with debt.
For business owners, this is an interesting opportunity. If you need someone in tech, marketing, operations, or finance, the young talent pool is deeper and more accessible than it has been in years.
For parents and retirees, this is a planning moment. Should they factor in supporting adult children longer, paying rent while they job hunt, delaying downsizing, maybe helping with student loans? These are real financial planning questions that were not part of the plan four years ago.
Biases at play:
Loss aversion. Parents may delay retirement plans or cut their own savings to support adult children longer than expected.
Narrative fallacy. Clients will build a complete story out of fragments. AI is taking all the jobs. Young people are unemployed. This is how recessions start.
Availability heuristic. Vivid stories about AI layoffs and hiring freezes dominate the news. The actual employment data tells a more mixed story.
Retirees and pre-retirees wondering if they need to factor in supporting adult children for longer, paying rent while they job hunt, delaying downsizing, or managing student loan debt that has not gone away.
My daughter just graduated and cannot find a job. How long should we plan to help her financially?
We were going to downsize this year. Should we wait in case our son needs to move back home?
Business owners who now have access to high-quality junior talent that would have been hired by Meta or Google two years ago. This is a rare hiring opportunity for small and mid-sized firms.
I run a small business. Is this actually a good time to hire someone junior?
Young and growing families managing their own student loans, variable incomes, and now planning for their kids' college costs, so the next generation does not graduate with debt.
Some more context for your meetings:
Youth unemployment is elevated but not spiking. Unemployment for workers aged 16-24 was 9.5% in April 2026. For workers aged 16-19, it was 12.8%. BLS
Young college graduates are struggling more than a few years ago. Unemployment for young college graduates ages 21-24 rose from 4.0% in July 2023 to 5.3% in March 2026. Nearly all of that increase came from higher labor force participation, not job losses. The employment-to-population ratio for young college graduates held steady. BLS
Young workers without a degree are facing a tougher market. Young workers without a college degree saw their unemployment rate rise from 5.9% to 7.1% between March 2024 and March 2026. BLS
Employers are not cutting workers, just not adding them. The JOLTS layoffs and discharges rate held near the lowest in the survey's history going back to 2000, at 1.2% in March 2026. BLS
CEOs are deprioritizing junior hiring in a big way. 43% of CEOs surveyed plan to deprioritize hiring for junior roles over the next two years, up from 17% last year. 30% plan to prioritize mid-level roles. 45% expect to hold headcount flat, and 29% plan workforce reductions of more than 5%. Oliver Wyman Forum, NYSE
AI has had almost no measurable employment impact as of January. Only about 2% of businesses reported any AI-related employment change between November 2025 and January 2026, with increases and decreases happening in roughly equal numbers. 66% of firms using AI use it only to augment existing tasks, not replace workers. U.S. Census Bureau
READ THIS: CEOs are reshaping their workforce and operations with AI
One thing worth reading, and exactly why it’s worth your time
This is worth your next 10 minutes because it explains the single biggest workforce shift happening right now, backed by a survey of 415 chief executives across industries and regions.
43% of CEOs plan to deprioritize hiring for junior roles over the next two years. 33% plan to prioritize mid-level roles. Only 17% expect to increase junior hiring. This is a sharp reversal from just one year ago.
The shift is driven by AI handling routine tasks that used to go to entry-level workers. It is also driven by growth strategies, M&A activity, and businesses reshaping work faster than expected.
45% of CEOs expect to hold headcount flat. 29% plan workforce reductions of more than 5% in the next two years.
The New York Fed noted that the job market for 22-to-27-year-olds has deteriorated noticeably. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested AI may be a factor.
This is the data that explains the conversations your clients are having right now, whether they are parents, business owners, or young professionals trying to navigate a job market that looks nothing like the one from five years ago. Use this to contextualize the hiring freeze headlines and the graduation anxiety your clients are feeling this week.
STEAL THIS: The secret hack that gets you into their inbox without their emails
One practical thing you can use in your practice, in your content, or on a call
Nobody talks about the LinkedIn newsletter. But you’re out there posting yourself to death and wondering how you turn your content into conversations and referrals.
Here is why I love it.
You meet someone at an event. You connect on LinkedIn. They are now automatically invited to your list. You never had to ask for their email. You never had to explain what you do. You just stay connected. Every week, you show up in their inbox and their feed with something useful and timely. When they need an advisor, they think of you first.
Here is what to put into it.
Do not think about this as content. The most important thing is showing up. It doesn’t have to be any longer than a regular LinkedIn post. But, doing it through the newsletter puts the content into your subscribers’ inboxes.
The best approach? Think of it like a 5-minute weekly phone call. A little personal bit. A little update on the thing that happened this week. Answer a question you’ve been getting from other clients.
Still sound like a lot? Well, that’s why we built Share Scoops for advisors.
Break down this week’s news, answer common questions, a full update in 5 clicks.
View the curated topics based on behavioral research
Break down the latest hiring data? Click to add to editor.
The latest in small business? Click to add.
Answer a question about compensation? Click to add.
One click: customize to your voice
One click: personalize to your specific client persona
One click: polish everything into a formatted newsletter
Copy it, paste it into your LinkedIn newsletter
Publish
Five minutes. Done.
The list compounds. So does the regret of waiting.
Not marketing advice. Just what works.
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See you next week,
Augustus
Augustus Christensen
Founder & CEO
